RISKS OF NEW ONSETS OF GENOCIDE AND POLITICIDE IN 2013

RISKS OF NEW ONSETS OF GENOCIDE AND POLITICIDE IN 2013

Barbara Harff and Ted Robert Gurr December 3, 2013

HAZARDS IN COUNTRIES WITH ONGOING STATE FAILURES

Countries and 2013 Hazard Score[i]

Recent Changes in Geno/pol Hazards

Current Instability

Contention re Elite Ethnicity[ii]

Hazard ratio:1.62

Regime Type

2012[iii]

Hazard ratio: 0.905

Targets of Systematic Dis-

crimination[iv]

Hazard ratio: 2.185

Exclusionary

Ideology

Hazard ratio:

2.16

Past Geno/Politi- cides

Hazard ratio:

0.35

Ethiopia

3.202

No significant change in last decade

Regional rebellion since 2006

Yes: Tigrean minority dominates

Partial autocracy

Oromo, Anuak

No

Yes: 1976-79

Syria

3.151

Very high since 1958, no change since 1982

Civil war since 2011

Yes: Alawite minority dominates

Full autocracy

Islamists, Alawites, Kurds+2

No

Yes: 1981-82

Sudan

1.207

Slight decline after 2009

Civil war, genocides since 1982

No

Partial

autocracy

Darfuri, Nuba, Korodofan

peoples

Yes: Islamist

Yes: 1956-72,

1983-present

Russia

0.635

Slight increase after 2006

Chechen rebellions since 1994

No

Partial democracy

None

No

Yes: 1920s,1930s

Turkey

0.606

Significant decline after 2008

Kurdish rebellion since 1979

No

Full democracy

Kurds

No

No

Myanmar

0.590

Major decline after 2010

Regional wars since 1950s

Yes: Burman majority dominates

Partial democracy

Karen, Kachin, Royhinga Muslims

Yes: Burman

nationalism

Yes: 1978

Yemen

0.426

Slight decline after 2011

Civil wars since 2004

No

Weak partial democracy

None

Yes: Islamist

No

DR
Congo

0.471

Substantial decline after 2001

Regional rebellions since 1962

No

Partial democracy

Tutsis, Batwa/Bambuti

No

Yes: 1964-5

1977, 1999

Libya

0.366

Major decline after 2011

Violent con-testation for power since 2011

No

No effective regime

None

No

No


COUNTRIES WITH HIGH RISKS OF GENOCIDE AND POLITICIDE IF THEY SHOULD HAVE MAJOR CONFLICTS OR STATE FAILURES [v]

2013 Hazard Score

Recent changes in hazards

Current instability

Contention re elite ethnicity

Regime type 2012

Targets of discrimination

Exclusionary ideology

Past geno/ politicides

Saudi
Arabia

9.286

Persistently high

None

*Yes: Sunni majority, Sudairi clan dominates

Full autocracy

Shi’i

Yes: Wahabism

None

Bahrain

6.478

Sharp increase after 2010

Mass protests by Shi’i

majority

Yes: Sunni Al-Khalifa clan dominates

Full autocracy

Shi’i

No

None

Cameroun

3.541

No change since 1992

None

Majority ethnic elite: Christian southerners

Partial autocracy

Westerners, Bamileke, Bakassi

No

None

Uzbekistan

3.229

No change since 1992

Low-level Islamist terrorism

No

Full autocracy

Tajiks, Islamists

Yes: Uzbek nationalism

None

Mauritania

2.895

No change since 2009

Islamist terrorism

Minority ethnic elite: Beydane (White Moors)

Partial autocracy

Kewri, Black Moors

No

No

Turkmenistan

2.351

No change since 2003

None

No

Full autocracy

Uzbeks, Baloch, Russians

None

None

North
Korea

2.262

No change since 1994

None

No

Full autocracy

None

Communism

None

People’s Rep. of China

1.996

No change since 1990

Low-level terrorism in Xinjiang

Majority ethnic elite: Han

Full autocracy

Tibetans,

Uyghers,

Falun Gong

Communism

Yes: 1950-51, 1959, 1956-

75



[i]

A hazard ratio score of, for example, 2.16 shows that hazard to experience onset of genocide or politicide in a given year of state failure increases by 116% (2.16 times) for every 1-unit increase in the variable in question; a hazard ratio score of 0.35 shows that the country becomes less 65% likely to experience onset of genocide or politicide in a given year of state failure for every 1-unit increase in the variable in question. These scores are obtained from a Cox Regression analysis of the onset of genocide or politicide in countries that were in state failure from 1955 to 2012. The state failure country year was used as unit of analysis. State failure is defined using the Political Instability Task Force's operational definition: it includes countries with ethnic or revolutionary wars underway and those undegoing rapid, abrupt changes in regime. Birger Heldt carried out the analyses using new and updated data on all variables previously used in risk assessments by Barbara Harff.

The last five columns in the table show the variables that are strongly statistically significant in predicting the onset of genocides and politicides. Hazard ratio scores for the five variables show the increase of the baseline hazard for every 1-unit increase in the variable in question; note that these are raw weights, not standardized weights, so they can be interpreted only by reference to the scaled values of the variables, some of which are binary (0/1) while others are interval-like ordinal scales with values ranging from 0 to 2 (for elite ethnicity) or from 0 to 20 (for autocracy-democracy). Trade openness, used in previous analyses, was not significant in the statistical analysis. Past genocides seem for some reason to inoculate states from resorting to it again, according to the new analyses. This finding will be the subject of follow-up analyses.

[ii]

A three-category code is used: if the ethnicity (or religion) of the elite is politically contentious, the country is coded 1. If the elite in power represents a minority, like Alawites in Syria, the country year is coded 2. Otherwise the country year is 0.

[iii]

The Polity scale is used, converted so that a fully autocratic regime is 0 and a fully democratic regime is 20.

[iv]

From the Minorities at Risk project survey of groups subject to state-led discrimination (through 2006, http://www.cidcm.umd.edu.mar/) updated using information from the Minorities Rights Group’s 2011 report on other groups subject to widespread discrimination and additional reports.

[v]
Countries that are not now experiencing failures – civil wars or regime instability- also have some of the factors that predict to the onset of geno/politicide. The countries listed here are the non-failure states with the highest hazards for geno/politicide, if state failure were to occur.