Global Risks

A number of scholars and organizations prepare global lists of countries at risk of genocidal events and mass atrocities:

  • Babara Harff’s annual assessments, the most recent for 2015, are based on an empirically derived theoretical model and use a global dataset compiled and updated for the US government’s Political Instability Task Force. See Risk assessments reports by Barbara Harff on this website.
  • Genocide Watch list uses an eight-stage theoretical model to assess the current risks in all countries that have experienced genocides, politicides, or mass murder at any time since 1948, or that are now in the early or middle stages of the process. See current list in Genocide Watch website.
  • "Peoples Under Threat," prepared by Mark Lattimer of ‘Minority Rights Group International', is another very useful annual assessment. It uses a mix of quantitative data and judgments to identify and rank minorities that are at risk of victimization from conflict and repression. See the organization's website, and its annual report, "State of the World's Minorities".